A Passing Fantasy Issue 90

NFLBP Player Newsletter 2001 Season Week Five

ed Robert Crowther

A wider variety of contributors this week – and a bumper issue (I've had to make it a smaller font to fit it all in), but still a distinct 'scent of the (NFC) west' about the newsletter. Doesn't anybody else care? The address for comments and contributions is:


79 Petworth Road

Finchley

London

N12 9HE


Or email to '[email protected]'.


Week Four Review


New England squeaked past Seattle thanks to some turnovers and a big kick return, their pass defense certainly wasn't much help. Denver pulled off the day's first big upset with a great passing performance in Miami. New York struggled to find a way through the Cleveland defense and never looked like overcoming the early deficit. Buffalo somehow managed to turn 240 yards of offense into 31 points, but it was the Jags they were playing. In the AFC grudge match the Bengals dominated the Raiders for long stretches but, thanks to a fumble and a kick return touchdown, had to wait until late in the fourth to finally put the game away. The Kansas City defense finally got tired of waiting for the offense to score and got enough points themselves to secure a win in Pittsburgh. The St Louis offense isn't firing on all cylinders but they had more than enough to see off the Cardinals. Philadelphia got plenty of opportunities but settled for five field goals, they paid for it in the fourth when the Saints got two touchdowns to snatch victory. Green Bay continued their surprising start to the season with a solid win in Washington. Dallas picked up their first win of the season at the expense of the hopeless Bears. Tampa produced the shock of the day, after three weeks of playing like chumps they knocked off the champs with a power running display and great defense. San Francisco left it late in Detroit but came through comfortably in the fourth.


Offensive performance of the week goes to Cincinnati, for ripping to shreds the (previously) second ranked defense in the league. Defensive performance of the week goes to Tampa Bay, who finally put in the sort of performance we were expecting. Special teams performance of the week goes to New England, that kick return touchdown made all the difference for them.


Predictions Standings

Darren Birtchnell


Darren Birtchnell

13.75

(4)

Martyn Williams

13.75

(4)

Rob Crowther

12.75

(4)



Lions v 49ers – Match Report

Martin Devine


The first quarter was fairly uneventful, with both teams starting to put drives together before stalling - a good punt to the Lions 3 set up decent field position for the 49ers next drive, and led to a field goal for San Francisco for an early 3-0 lead. The Lions came back with a solid drive on their next possession, though, going 63 yards in 16 plays for a TD to go ahead 7-3. After both teams stalled just outside field goal range, the 49ers added a second field goal to pull within a point, 7-6 behind at the half.


The coach's half-time team-talk must have been good, as my 49ers drove down the field for a TD on their first possession of the second half. After forcing a quick 3 and out on defence, the offence moved the ball well again, but a sack and fumble at the Lions' 10 snuffed out a good scoring chance. Detroit didn't do anything with the turnover, but forced another on the 49ers next drive to get the ball back at midfield. The 49er defence made the big play, though, forcing a fumble just as the Lions moved into field goal range at the beginning of the fourth quarter. This proved to be Detroit's last chance, as San Francisco took advantage of another turnover and a failed fourth down attempt to score two late TDs, the final score being 27-7.


Four Week Review

John Coleman


The superbowl champions are an enigma! Looking at the stats Carolina seems a below average team at best and a poor side at worst! This was born out with a drubbing from the winless Buccaneers. However, numbers mean nought. It's the win column everyone looks at. As Coach Williams says, it doesn't matter how many yards you gain or concede, it's putting points on the board. He should know as the Rams will be the next superbowl champions. Without wishing to bore all the other coaches the NFC West is the best, and once you win that the superbowl is a doddle. The worst team in the NFC West has a 3-1 record, that would put them top of all the other divisions. Except the AFC Central which does not count, as there is only one team in that! Cincinnati start each season 6-0 as they have no competition in the Central. This gives them extra form points to beat the superior Raiders who have some opposition in Kansas and Seattle on the road. New England were good, but any team that can lose to Cleveland must be suffering! Which brings us back to the real powerhouse, the NFC. Hopefully Danny will seed teams next season so the top 10 NFC teams can play each other and be joined by the 2 AFC that are above average. The other twelve ... well who cares?


Come on then AFC, try harder to stop giving form gains away. But then again, either the Bengals or Raiders will need plenty of help if they reach the superbowl. How will they stop the Rams from making it a boring one sided game like last year!!!!


ST LOUIS POST-DESPATCH

NFLBP 2001 Season Review - Weeks 1 to 4

Martyn Williams


AFC East


New England and Miami have both made slightly disappointing starts to the season. The Patriots showed uncharacteristic defensive frailties in an opening day loss to the Browns and a second half collapse against the Seahawks week 4. The Dolphins meanwhile beat up on poor opposition weeks 1 and 2 but were then crushed at home by the Bengals. This defeat was followed up by a humiliating loss at home to the winless Broncos last week. Neither team looks like a true superbowl contender yet and the week 5 game between the two already looks like a must win situation for Miami. The new coach in Buffalo struggled through a tough opening three games and finally recorded the first win week 4 against a sorry Jaguars team. Upcoming games against the Jets and Bears will help the Bills look better than they actually are. The Jets had to wait until week 3 before scoring any points and don't look like visiting the endzone on a regular basis anytime this season.


AFC Central


All hail Cleveland who look determined to make the Central a more interesting division this season. Despite a thumping by Cincinnati week 2, victories against both the Patriots and Chiefs have the Browns faithful realistically looking at a wildcard this season. Their visit to St Louis week 6 will give a good indication of how far they have come this year. Cincinnati look determined to prove the one sided loss in the Superbowl was a one off and have simply steam-rolled their opponents - even Oakland didn't cause them any real concerns, and the Carolina players will be looking toward week 6 with apprehension. The Steelers have beaten two poor teams and lost to two good teams - another season of mediocrity ahead for them. Jacksonville are currently the bookies favourite for the first draft pick.


AFC West


Once again the Raiders have discovered that there is only one AFC team standing in their way, namely Cincinnati. They still have a tough defence and a grind it out ground attack but have also discovered a very productive pass offence and all that combined will see them past most opponents. The Chiefs haven't beaten anyone good yet and I don't think their challenge to the Raiders will go past week 5. The Seahawks are 1-3 but have run the Raiders and Patriots close – they should win their next two to set up crunch games weeks 7 and 8 against the Dolphins and Chiefs respectively. Denver will quickly prove that their win in Miami was no more than a lucky fluke and will remain bottom of the West all season.


NFC East


A weak division, and even Philadelphia look unable to prevent the NFC West's dominance of the conference after the week 4 loss at home to the Saints. Upcoming games against the Chiefs and Rams will confirm where they stand in the scheme of things but they look like the division champions elect at present. Of the other three, Dallas look the most likely to cause the Eagles concern thanks to their easier schedule. The Cardinals have far too tough a schedule to make any impression and unless Washington can find a defence soon the only game they will be looking forward to is week 7 in Chicago.


NFC Central


Green Bay failed their first test against the 49ers but still look the best of the Central so far. Their next tough game is week 8 against the Lions by which time they could be well in control of the division. Detroit look a good team who will give a good account of themselves but will struggle against the 49ers and Panthers of this world. Tampa Bay, who knows? Weeks 1 to 3 they looked awful and then they run all over the Superbowl Champions. Their next three games are all tough so by week 8 we'll know more. The Bears look set on a new record for consecutive losses.


NFC West


It wouldn't be madness to suggest that all four teams could finish with the best four records in the NFC! The 49ers have a new gameplan this season and its called offence. After a tentative start against Dallas they have improved week after week. They will be looking to confirm their position as favourites to win the West with victories over the Panthers week 5 and Rams week 8. The Rams now have a running attack, defence and special teams (so it's unfortunate the passing game has regressed). They have only lost one game, in overtime to the Panthers, and look good at 3-1, but the next four games against the Saints, Browns, Eagles and 49ers will go some way to deciding whether a division championship is a realistic aim. The Panthers look very strong and will be hoping that the loss in Tampa was a one off. They need one win from their next two tough games against the 49ers and Bengals to still be considered up there with the best though. The Saints look like they are ready to relive former glories, but are likely to struggle in the NFC West divisional match ups and that will cost them a shot at the playoffs (I just know I'm going to regret saying that.).


Statistics Corner

Martyn Williams


A section of the newsletter considered by many to be long dead makes a return thanks to Martyn Williams. Below are the league leaders in passer rating (calculated on the official NFL formula) and rusher rating (calculated on a similar formula developed, I believe, by Dave Marsdin of endzone1.co.uk).




RUSHING OFFENCE


1

Cincinnati Bengals

91.23

2

St Louis Rams

83.89

3

Green Bay Packers

82.42

4

Philadelphia Eagles

76.67

5

San Francisco 49ers

71.15

6

New Orleans Saints

68.19

7

Kansas City Chiefs

65.64

8

Carolina Panthers

65.41



PASSING OFFENCE


1

Carolina Panthers

138.36

2

New Orleans Saints

134.43

3

Green Bay Packers

119.25

4

New England Patriots

104.59

5

San Francisco 49ers

100.50

6

Dallas Cowboys

98.32

7

Washington Redskins

98.22

8

Oakland Raiders

96.84


RUSHING DEFENCE


1

Kansas City Chiefs

35.57

2

New England Patriots

39.31

3

Philadelphia Eagles

43.49

4

Cincinnati Bengals

48.04

5

Buffalo Bills

48.53

6

St Louis Rams

49.87

7

San Francisco 49ers

52.58

8

Seattle Seahawks

56.39



PASSING DEFENCE


1

Cincinnati Bengals

57.83

2

New England Patriots

59.21

3

Arizona Cardinals

66.70

4

Oakland Raiders

70.83

5

Carolina Panthers

71.12

6

Kansas City Chiefs

72.51

7

Buffalo Bills

74.12

8

Dallas Cowboys

74.30


Week Five Preview


Predictions and commentary from Martin Devine, other predictions from Darren Birtchnell, Martyn Williams, John Coleman and myself.


Patriots at Dolphins


MD – New England are starting to look like a force again after a slow start to the season, and should be too good for a decent but limited Miami team. PATRIOTS BY 10


Jets at Bills


MD – New York will continue to struggle until they start to run the ball a bit more - Buffalo haven't played all that well so far this year, but have too good a defence to lose to such a one-dimensional team. BILLS BY 14 (Lock)


Bengals at Steelers


MD – If Pittsburgh can be shut out by Kansas City, their offence won't make much impact against a very solid Cincinnati team. BENGALS BY 10 (Blowout)


Browns at Jaguars


MD – This one should be comfortable for Cleveland, who look capable of giving the Bengals a bit more of a challenge for the AFC Central this year. BROWNS BY 17


Raiders at Chiefs


MD – A game which will go a long way towards deciding the AFC West (even this early in the season). Oakland are the better team overall, but Kansas City are more than capable of beating any team in the league on their day. RAIDERS BY 3


Seahawks at Broncos


MD – Both teams passed for over 400 yards in week 4 against decent defences, so this one could be a bit of a shootout. Seattle's defence has been slightly better so far this year, which could be enough to swing the game their way. SEAHAWKS BY 1 (Shock)


Cardinals at Eagles


MD – This would have been a good game last year, but Arizona have disintegrated since the playoffs and will struggle to compete in this game. EAGLES BY 10


Redskins at Cowboys


MD – A difficult game to call because neither team is playing well at all at the moment - Dallas have no offence, while Washington are struggling on defence (now why does that sound familiar?) I usually go with the defence in this sort of game. COWBOYS BY 6


Bucs at Lions


MD – Detroit are a solid team, but if Tampa Bay can beat Carolina... The Lions should win, but a road win for the Bucs would not be a surprise. LIONS BY 7



Packers at Bears


MD – This should be comfortable for Green Bay on current form, but the NFC Central is a tough division to predict at the moment.

PACKERS BY 10


Panthers at 49ers


MD – This one should be a lot closer than the stats would suggest. Keys to the game are Carolina's ground game against a solid 49er run defence and how well the 49er passing game works - the San Francisco offence has been on fire so far, but Carolina haven't been giving up many points. (Slugfest)


Rams at Saints


MD – The Rams are favourites, but New Orleans are playing very solidly at the moment. Even so, St. Louis should be able to take advantage of the Saints' weaknesses here. RAMS BY 10 (Shoot)


Other predictions:


DB – Patriots by 3; Bills by 7; Browns by 10; Raiders by 7; Seahawks by 6; Eagles by 7; Redskins by 1 (Shock, Shootout); Lions by 3; Packers by 10; 49ers by 1; Rams by 7, (Lock, Blowout Bengals at Steelers).


MW – Patriots by 10, Bills by 10, Bengals by 20 (Lock, Blowout), Browns by 14, Raiders by 10, Seahawks by 7, Eagles by 10, Cowboys by 7 (Shock – Redskins), Lions by 7 (Slugfest), Packers by 14, 49ers by 7, (Shootout Rams at Saints)


RC – Dolphins by 3 (Shock); Bills by 3 (Slugfest); Bengals by 14 (Blowout); Seahawks by 10 (Shootout); Eagles by 7; Cowboys by 3; Bucs by 7; Packers by 10 (Lock); 49ers by 1; Rams by 7.


JC – Patriots by 17; Bills by 10; Bengals by 28; Browns by 14; Raiders by 10; Seahawks by 10; Eagles by 14; Cowboys by 10; Lions by 7; Packers by 14; 49ers by 21; Rams by 10.



NFLBP Player Newsletter

-2-

ed Robert Crowther